The EUR/USD pair is experiencing significant upward movement, with the latest traded price at 1.16617. This marks a crucial bullish development, strengthened by positive technical indicators. The short-term uptrend is clearly defined, with key support found around the 1.15807 level, verified by a previous consolidation pattern and simple moving averages. The resistance now stands at 1.16774, the recent swing high, which has been tested and holds as a significant barrier. The bullish structure is confirmed by the absence of classical chart patterns but is emphasized by the vigorous momentum breakout.
Given the bullish momentum, the RSI at 67.80 reflects strong upward pressure without hitting overbought territories, supporting further gains. Candle formations demonstrate robust, body-filled structures with minimal wicks, emphasizing bullish strength. Traders optimistic about this uptrend should monitor the 4-hour time frame closely for any reversal signs. The absence of divergence between RSI and price actions suggests continual upward strength, reinforcing the currency’s bullish stance at present.
On the fundamental side, recent comments from ECB policymakers indicate a steady approach to monetary policy. This steadiness adds a layer of support to the euro, despite improvements in economic metrics. Meanwhile, U.S. economic signals, particularly the Consumer Price Index, show stubbornness in inflation, yet the Fed remains cautious without hinting at immediate rate hikes or reductions. This dynamic creates an environment where the euro finds relative strength, particularly against the dollar.
Additionally, Eurozone sentiment has witnessed a modest improvement, aided by stronger-than-expected PMI data and upbeats from the German ZEW survey. On the geopolitical front, while tensions between the U.S. and E.U. regarding trade relations linger, recent days have not seen any escalation, providing a more stable backdrop for the euro’s ascent. Hence, the combined technical and fundamental narratives present a favorable outlook for EUR/USD, indicating less downside potential and more room for upward maneuver.
Traders and investors are keeping a close watch on the activity above resistance levels, particularly 1.16774, as a sustained breakout beyond this could pave the way for further appreciation. Should the price retest the 1.16200–1.15807 support band, the area likely offers robust support. Conversely, a decisive close below 1.15807 could invalidate the current bullish outlook, prompting a reassessment. Overall, the directional bias remains bullish, with technical and fundamental factors aligning in favor of further price gains.
