Getting and staying above the end of March high at 110.960 is proving to be difficult
The USDJPY moved to a new 2021 high yesterday after breaking above the March 31 high at 110.960. The high price moved to 111.099, but failed and moved lower.
Today, the price moved back above the old high with today’s high reaching 111.109 this time. Once again the break(s) failed (above the high from March 31 and yesterday). The current price is trading at 110.787.
Drilling to the hourly chart, the price has dipped back below its swing high from June 17 at 110.823. The last two hourly bars have been able to stay below that level. Prior to the last two hourly bars the price traded above and below for 6 hours. If the price can stay below that level, the intraday bias would tilt more in the downward direction.
The next key targets would come in the 110.52 to 110.579 area. The 100 hour moving averages at 110.52. A swing area is at 110.52 to 110.579 (see red numbered circles). Get below that level and traders will start to target the 38.2% retracement (from June 7 low) and the rising 200 hour moving average at 110.342.
If the price can move back above 1.10823 in the short term, there could be another retest of the 110.96 high from March 31.
However one has to wonder if the old adage “fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me” applies. Sellers may look to lean hard and keep the price below that level.