Buyers holding onto intraday bullish bias
The USDCHF race tire yesterday and in the price ran away from its 100 and 200 hour moving averages, and cracked above the 200 day MA at 0.90683 (and stayed above). Today, the price moved above the next key target at the 100 day MA at 0.9114 (that MA is now a risk defining level for longs looking for more upside).
The high price today reached 0.91657. Looking at the hourly chart below, that high tested a swing high going back to May 4 at 0.9164. There is some stall showing up after the 179 pips run up on the FOMC shove. PS the USDCHF traded in a 127 pip range from May 14 (23 days – see red box).
Drilling down to the 5-minute chart below, the pair had a dipped below its 100 bar moving average (blue line) during the Asian session, but momentum faded fairly quickly, and after moving back above, the price stayed above and started the next run higher through the 100 day MA. The break above the 100 day moving average has been able to stay above that level.
Looking at the rising 100 bar moving average, the correction in the New York session did find support buyers against that moving average on the first dip. That keeps the intraday buying bias still in the favor of the bulls. It would take a move below the 100 bar moving average currently at 0.914172 tilt the intraday bias more to the downside. However there would be additional hurdles if the sellers are to take back more control (at least intraday). Getting below the 38.2% retracement of the days range at 0.91314, and ultimately the rising 200 bar moving average and 100 day moving average (both currently at 0.9114 area) would tilt more of the bias to toward the sellers.
Until those steps are made, there may be topside resistance, but the buyers are still more in control (and the sellers are not winning).