Sellers trying to take more control
The USDCHF as fallen after the jobs report after trading to the highest level since April 8, 2021 earlier in the day.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price today has moved below an upward sloping trendline (the price did move above the trendline on the headline spike higher that was quickly reversed). The moved to the downside has also breached the swing highs from June 18 and June 21 and the high from Tuesdays trade. Those levels come between 0.9231 and 0.9233 (see yellow area and red numbered circles in the chart above). In trading yesterday, the price corrected down into that area, but found support buyers.
If the sellers are to remain in control from an intraday basis at least, staying below 0.92383 would be an encouraging signal.
On the downside, the price has moved to test the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the low from last week’s trade. That level comes in at 0.92235. It is also breached below the 100 hour moving average at 0.92298. Sellers are trying to take control but they need to keep the pressure on. They also need to ultimately move to and through the 50% retracement level at 0.92079 and the 200 hour moving average just below that level at 0.9206 in order to increase the bearish technical bias.
SUMMARY: The sellers are making a play below the 0.92383 level, but they still have more to do. Stay below the 38.2% retracement at 0.92235 and working toward – and through – the 200 hour moving average/50% retracement levels are requirements if the Bears are to take more control from an intermediate-term perspective.