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Saturday, June 19, 2021

US May final UMich consumer sentiment 82.9 vs 83.0 expected

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May UMich consumer sentiment data:

US May final UMich consumer
  • Weakest since Feb
  • Prelim was 82.8
  • Current conditions 89.4 vs 90.8 prelim
  • Expectations 78.8 vs 77.6 prelim
  • 1-year inflation 4.6% vs 4.6% prelim
  • 5-10 year inflation 3.0% vs 3.1% prelim

The revisions to this report rarely move the market. Note that when the prelim came out on May 14, the consensus was for a 90.0 reading so there’s some evidence of the consumer slowing down, but that’s likely about stimulus checks and the slow drift in this report toward politics and less about the economy. The Fed will take some tiny bit of solace from that revision lower in longer-term inflation expectations, though that could reverse next month given all the price talk lately.

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