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US June CPI +% y/y +5.4% vs +4.9% expected

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Highlights of the June 2021 US CPI report

Highlights of the June 2021 US CPI report
  • Prior was +5.0% y/y — highest since 2008
  • Ex food and energy +4.5% vs +4.0% y/y expected
  • Prior ex food and energy +3.8%
  • CPI m/m +0.9% vs +0.5% expected
  • Prior m/m reading was +0.6%
  • CPI ex-food and energy +0.9% vs +0.4% m/m expected
  • Prior ex food and energyr +0.7 m/m

Wage data:

  • Real avg hourly earnings % vs -2.8% y/y prior
  • Real avg weekly earnings -0.9% m/m vs -0.1% m/m prior

The US dollar has jumped around 50 pips across the board on the headlines and US equity futures fell. I’m watching bonds closely. The long end has sold off, pushing yields up to 1.38% from 1.36%. That’s not a huge move but last time around, yields moved up and then later crashed lower.

In terms of details, used cars alone represented about one-third of the increase in the y/y CPI as they rose 10.5%.

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