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Saturday, June 19, 2021

US initial jobless claims 444K vs 450K estimate

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Weekly US initial jobless claims in continuing claims

Initial dollars claims
  • Prior week was initially reported at 473K. The prior week was revised to 478K 
  • Initial jobless claims 444K versus 450K estimate.
  • Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims 504.75K vs 535.25K last week. The average is the lowest since March 14, 2020.
  • Continuing claims 3751K versus 3630K estimate
  • Four-week moving average of continuing claims 3681K vs 3656.25K.
  • The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 8 were in Georgia (+7,404), Washington (+6,111),
    Illinois (+3,221), Pennsylvania (+2,156), and Ohio (+1,371), 
  • The largest decreases were in Michigan (-13,990),
    New York (-8,106), Vermont (-5,835), Nevada (-2,835), and Florida (-2,210). 
  • During the week ending May 1, 51 states reported 6,605,416 continued weekly claims for Pandemic Unemployment
    Assistance benefits and 51 states reported 5,141,311 continued claims for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment
    Compensation benefits. 

The initial claims data was the lowest since March 14, 2020 when it came out at 256K

The initial claims this data corresponds with the survey week for the BLS.  

The employment benefits are scheduled to lapse in September. There is expectations that once that happens, the claims data will fall sharply as those choosing to receive government aid instead of working, go back to work.  

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