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Monday, June 14, 2021

US April CPI +4.2% y/y vs +3.6% expected

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US April 2021 consumer price index highlights:

  • Prior was +2.6%
  • Ex food and energy +3.0% y/y vs +2.3% expected
  • Prior ex food and energy +1.6%
  • CPI +0.8% m/m vs +0.2% expected
  • Prior m/m reading was +0.6% (highest since 2016)
  • CPI ex-food and energy +0.9% m/m vs +0.3% expected

Wage data:

  • Real avg hourly earnings -3.7% vs +1.5% y/y prior
  • Real avg weekly earnings -1.4% vs +3.9% y/y prior

That’s a big miss and the dollar is ripping higher. Everyone was expecting a bump because of base effects but this is truly a surprise and is going to test the FOMC resolve and the market’s resolve to look through bottlenecks or temporary factors.

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