Highlights from the PCE report for April 2021:
- Prior was +1.8%
- PCE core MoM +0.7% vs +0.6% expected
- Prior MoM +0.4%
- Deflator YoY +3.6% vs +3.5% expected
- Prior deflator YoY +2.4%
- Deflator MoM +0.6% vs +0.6% expected
- Prior MoM deflator +0.5% (revised to +0.6%)
- Full report
This is all a touch on the strong side but I think the market was braced or priced for something worse. The dollar has dipped on the data.
- Personal income -13.1% vs -14.2% expected. Prior month +20.9%
- Personal spending +0.5% vs +0.5% expected. Prior month +4.7%
- Real personal spending -0.1% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +4.6%
There were some upward revisions to March spending as the late-month stimulus checks came in. Spending held up into April but it’s it’s tough to separate stimulus money from the real economy and that will continue to be a challenge in the months ahead.
More details on inflation (y/y):
- Goods +4.5%
- Durable goods +5.2%
- Services +3.1%
- Energy +24.8%
- Food +0.9%
The PCE report doesn’t offer the same level of detail as CPI so you can’t say how much of a factor things like the spike in car prices had.