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Thursday, June 24, 2021

There’s no fear of tomorrow’s CPI report in the bond market

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Yields continue to sink

US 10-year year yields continue to fall.

They’re down another 4.7 bps today and hitting a session low at 1.485%. Aside from a brief spike lower on May 7, that’s the lowest since March 11.

US 10 year

1.48% isn’t much to get paid when tomorrow’s CPI report is expected at 4.7% y/y and +0.4% m/m.

The message is that rising prices will be temporary and that the Fed’s right. The market’s thinking is that slow job growth and perhaps less fiscal stimulus (infrastructure is dying a slow death) will limit the recovery.

It’s not just a US phenomenon though, Italian 10s are at the lowest since April and German 10s are down 3 bps today to -0.256%.

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