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Thursday, June 24, 2021

The JPY is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

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The USD is mixed ahead of the key CPI data at the bottom of the hour

The JPY is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as NA trader enter for the day. The USD is mixed with gains vs the EUR, GBP and CHF and declines vs the CAD, AUD and NZD. Once again, the major currencies are all scrunched together to start the North American session as traders look for the catalyst for the next shove.  That could come at 8:30 AM when the US CPI data for May will be released with expectations for a 0.5% gain for the headline and ex food and energy component.  Also released at the bottom of the hour is the weekly jobless claims data (370K vs 385K estimate – a new post pandemic low).  ECB Lagarde will also hold her presser after the ECB kept rates steady.  All events have the potential to goose the market a bit.  Later the US treasury will conclude their treasury auctions for the week with the selling of $24B of 30 year bonds. The 3 and 10 year have gone off with decent/strong demand.

  

The USD is mixed ahead of the key CPI data at the bottom of the hourThe ranges and changes are once again showing the lack of enthusiasm by market participants (although yesterday, the market did pep up a bit in the NY session).  The GBPUSD is leading the way with a 51 pips trading range. The GBPUSD low tested/moved below the swing low extreme going back to May 17 at 1.40757, and found buyers on the test (the low reached 1.40726).   That is still well below its 22 day average of 84 pips.  The EURUSD has a 33 pips range thanks to a spike after the rate decision.  The  other pairs have honored traders with ranges of 21 to 26 pips.  That is not a lot to go on.  Once again, there is room to room in the North American session before the end of day.

The ranges and changes for the major currency pairs
In other markets: 

  • Spot gold is trading down $11.70 or -0.63% $1876.90
  • Spot silver is down $0.11 or -0.41% at $27.67
  • WTI crude oil futures are up $0.14 or 0.20% at $70.10. The price has been trading above and below the $70 level over the last three trading days
  • Bitcoin is rebounding by $1353 or 3.72% at $37,743

In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading mixed with modest changes. The NASDAQ is down. The S&P is near unchanged, and the Dow industrial average is up modestly.

  • S&P index up up +2.2 points after yesterday’s -7.71 point decline
  • NASDAQ index is down -26 points after yesterday’s -13.16 point decline
  • Dow industrial average is up +68 points after yesterday’s -152.68 point decline

the European equity markets, major indices are mixed:

  • German DAX, unchanged
  • France’s CAC, -0.4%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.2%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.5%

In the US debt market, the yields are higher after yesterday’s decline’s saw the 10 year move below the 1.500% level. That yield is currently trading just above that key barometer.  

US yields are higher
In the European debt market, yields are higher with gains of 1.0 basis points to 1.7 basis points.



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