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Monday, June 21, 2021

Oil (WTI & Brent) forecasts for this year: $63/bbl and $60 respectively

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Forecasts via BoA, analysts at the bank expecting: 

  • Brent and WTI to average $63/bbl and $60/bbl, respectively, in 2021
  • Our supply and demand forecasts suggest a 1.3mn b/d deficit in 2021 followed by a 170k b/d surplus in 2022 

On the demand sidethe bank sees:

  • We forecast global demand will rebound nearly 6mn b/d YoY in 2021 after falling 8.7mn b/d in 2020. 
  • During 2021-23, we forecast demand will grow by more than 9mn b/d, the fastest pace since the 1970s. 

On supply:

  • Non-OPEC supply should grow more than 1 mn b/d YoY in 2021 and an additional 2mn b/d in 2022. 
  • We project US supply to grow less than 200k b/d in 2021 and more than 1 mn b/d in 2022 thanks in part to robust NGL volumes.
  •  OPEC supplies are set to rise 800k b/d in 2021 and 2.1 mn b/d in 2022 and OPEC+ adds back supply and as Iran returns. 

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