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Monday, June 21, 2021

NZD/USD targeted at 0.75 in coming months. Model fair value estimate highest in 5 years.

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Via analysts at Westpac a quick take on where to for the New Zealand dollar:

  • We continue to expect global risk sentiment to remain elevated; supported by unprecedented central bank and government stimulus, as well as vaccine developments. 
  • Commodity currencies should strengthen in that environment, and the USD should weaken.
  •  NZD/USD targets 0.7500 multi-month. 

ASB are bullish also on the kiwi$:

  • in our view, USD strength is the only candidate capable of throwing the NZD/USD off the appreciation trend we see playing out over the rest of the year. 
  • Highlighting the NZD/USD’s upside potential, our short-term valuation model is currently estimating the highest fundamental ‘fair-value’ range in five years at 0.7200-0.7600. 
  • Global-reflation and the burst higher in commodity prices are the key stories here. Over the past year, the lift in NZ’s commodity export prices has pushed fair-value up by almost 7 US cents alone. We think this trend has further to run.

Weekly candles for NZD/USD … 

Via analysts at Westpac a quick take on where to for the New Zealand dollar:



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