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Saturday, June 19, 2021

Locked and loaded for another edition of jobs Friday

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This is a big one

This is a big one
Last month, Clarida said that because they
see inflation as transitory, he will be putting more weight on
employment.

The market was listening. We saw the big moves on the heels of the ADP report and now it’s time for the main event. Consensus is at 674K but I’d say the market is around 750K after ADP.

The market is fearful of 1m jobs or something closer and I think that’s a distinct possibility. On the low side, anything in the 500-600K range would be goldilocks but below that we might be running into questions about a weak recovery given the 266K reading last month. Watch for revisions on that one as well.

It’s also Canadian jobs Friday and that will be an interesting one. There was a tight lockdown in April and 207K job losses. Those lockdowns eased in Quebec but not Ontario and I fear the -25K consensus is too optimistic.

At 1400 GMT we also get the factory orders report.

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