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ISM services tops the economic calendar today as US traders return

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The long weekend is over

US traders are back after a long weekend and that will help to get things moving today. The antipodeans are strong led by the New Zealand dollar as the look set to diverge from Australia following today’s RBA decision.

Oil is higher with WTI at $75.72 but off the best levels. OPEC will look to regroup for a week before we find out what’s next.

One sign that the US economy is bouncing back is air travel, which was higher yesterday than in 2019 for the first time since the pandemic. That’s a bit of a calendar quirk because of the shift in the July 4th holiday but it’s still a sign of recovery.

The seven-day average of travel is still 17% below 2018 levels but as you can see, it’s steadily ticking higher.

Today’s main economic event is the ISM non-manufacturing survey at 10 am ET. The latest reading was the best since at least 2000 at 64.0 and the consensus is only for a slight downtick to 63.5. Fifteen minute before the release we will get the Markit services data.

The Fedspeak calendar is empty today and will be light all week with Fed officials extending the long weekend into a vacation.

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