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Saturday, June 19, 2021

How the market’s thinking on inflation will evolve

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Some ideas from Nordea

Over at Nordea, they’ve constructed a believable narrative around the evolution of inflation that’s captured in this chart:

Some ideas from NordeaI certainly believe that we’re in the ‘we don’t care’ phase right now and I expect that to be underscored even if Thursday’s CPI numbers are high.

For more-sticky inflation overall, they point to a few factors:

  1. Rent prices are rising and they appear to be sticky
  2. Food prices are soaring
  3. As they say “we tend to think that the labour market is running hotter than
    anticipated already as supply is not going to return as boomers ain’t
    coming back”
  4. Governments will continues to spend heavily

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