Goldman Sachs raises odds on a Fed taper announcement at its November meeting from 25% to 45%
As such, the firm lowers odds of an announcement in December from 55% to 35%.
They expect the Fed to go with a pace of $15 billion per meeting when tapering, split between $10 billion in Treasuries and $5 billion in MBS. Given such a scenario, September 2022 will mark the final date of tapering by the Fed.
If anything, I would say that it is a close call right now between November and December but I also wouldn’t rule out likelihood of a move early next year.
A lot still depends on the risks posed by the delta variant but one thing is almost for sure, it is that Powell & co. are unlikely to go ahead with any imminent change to the taper narrative at Jackson Hole later this week.