EURUSD bounces off the March 9 swing low
The EURUSD moved to the lowest level since April 6 today. Looking at the daily chart above, the low price of 1.18368 today, tested a swing low going back to March 9 at 1.18348 (see red numbered circles 1) and a low swing area between that level and 1.18452. Traders have pushed the price off that low.
Drawing to the hourly chart, the current hourly bar has moved the price back above the swing low from Tuesday’s trade at 1.18770. The price earlier today did move below June swing lows from June 18, June 21 and again yesterday between 1.1844 and 1.18507. That break should’ve solicited more selling. The price did move to a intraday low of 1.18368, but momentum dried up and the last few hours. The last 3-4 hours have seen steady upside momentum.
The next upside target comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the move down from last Friday’s high. That level comes in at 1.18895. Above that is the falling 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) which currently comes in at 1.19023. The 200 hour moving average is at 1.19124 (green line in the chart below).
Drilling down to the five minute chart below, the price rise over the last few hours has been steady and trend-like with little in the way of corrective moves. The move above the intraday swing area between 1.18597 and 1.18608 led to increase momentum.
What would spoil the bullish run now?
A move back below the 38.2% retracement – 50% retracement of the trend move higher between 1.1866 and 1.18608 would weaken the technical picture intraday. Move below 1.18608 would also start to take the price back below that swing area which ignited the upside run today.