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Saturday, June 19, 2021

EUR/USD Fed minutes correction was shallow and momentum still higher

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SocGen and Bank of America on the euro

SocGen and Bank of America on the euro
Societe Generale Research maintains a core bearish bias on USD after yesterday’s FOMC minutes.

“The good news is that while the Minutes prompted a lot of comment, markets have taken them in their stride. The world was, is and will remain awash with cheap dollars. Treasury yields remain range-bound and Bund yields are definitely not,” SocGen notes.

“EUR/USD failed to break 1.2250 yesterday equities suffer a
crypto-wobble and the Minutes came out, but the correction was shallow
and momentum is till upwards,” SocGen adds.

EUR/USD, USD/JPY: Where To Target? – BofA

Bank of America Global Research targets
EUR/USD at 1.18, 1.16, and 1.15 by end of Q2, Q3, Q4 respectively. BofA
also targets USD/JPY at 107, 110, and 113 by end of Q2, Q3, Q4
respectively.

“In the case of EUR in particular, we see two key drivers for the EUR in the short term and two in the long term….Although these drivers, as well as USD forces could go either way, we keep a bearish EUR bias.
The main reason is expectations for a weaker Eurozone recovery compared
with the US, which eventually should be consistent with diverging
monetary policies.

EURUSD is somewhat above our 2Q
forecast, but we stick to 1.15 forecast by year-end. The consensus has
been slowly adjusting lower and is now close to current spot
. Our year-end USDJPY forecasts remains 113.

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