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Economic data coming up in the European session

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UK Q2 GDP data on the agenda today

It is a quiet start to the day, with the dollar stabilising after a fall overnight following a rather on-the-mark US CPI data release.

Evidently, the market was looking for more it seems as it is perhaps a sign that inflation pressures may be peaking with the reopening surge potentially waning.

That saw the dollar tumble alongside Treasury yields but both managed to find their footing late on to bounce back a little. Of note, 10-year Treasury yields kept a hold above 1.30% and is now pushing back towards 1.35% going into European trading.

Major currencies are more subdued though, keeping in extremely tight ranges for now.

EUR/USD kept a defense of support @ 1.1704-11 yesterday but gains failed to firmly push past the July lows (now turned resistance) @ 1.1750-55.

USD/JPY did see a fall from 110.80 to 110.30 as the daily close sees the pair fail to take out the 23 July and 14 July highs @ 110.59 and 110.70 respectively.

The bond market is still the key driver of dollar sentiment at the moment as focus continues to stay on the Fed outlook going into Jackson Hole later this month.

0600 GMT – UK preliminary Q2 GDP figures

Prior release can be found here. UK GDP is estimated to expand solidly in Q2 as the economic reopening takes hold, with restrictions being eased and businesses springing back to life amid a surge in pent-up demand.

0600 GMT – UK June monthly GDP data

Prior release can be found here. The UK economy is expected to have performed modestly in June, keeping with the reopening momentum. Pent-up demand being sustained is arguably the key factor but we should start to see things slow a fair bit going into Q3.

0900 GMT – Eurozone June industrial production

Prior release can be found here. Euro area factory output is estimated to drop slightly in June, as supply chain disruptions are once again the likely culprit and that may yet be a persistent issue in the months ahead.

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

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