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Economic data coming up in the European session

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German Ifo business survey on the agenda


Welcome to Fed week, everyone.

That is going to be the key focus in the market in the days ahead, adding to month-end trading, so things could be a little choppy and messy in the build up.

For now, major currencies are little changed to start the day with US futures a little lower and Treasury yields also slightly on the retreat with 10-year yields failing to hold a push above 1.30% last week, seen now at 1.26%.

The big question for the Fed this week will revolve around the same key issues i.e. do they still think inflation is ‘transitory’ and if there is any need to shift policy views to lean towards a quicker path in terms of normalising (tapering).

As such, taper talk is arguably the key element to be wary about.

0800 GMT – Germany July Ifo business climate index

Prior release can be found here. Current conditions are estimated to hold up and reflect a slight improvement as business activity in the summer helps amid lower virus cases. While optimism is still largely intact, there are some risks to be wary of especially on the virus front with Germany closing back in on ~20,000 total active cases.

0800 GMT – SNB total sight deposits w.e. 23 July

Your weekly check of the deposits kept at the SNB by Swiss banks. This data is a proxy for FX interventions.

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

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