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Economic data coming up in the European session

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Eurozone inflation figures for May due later today

Tuesday

The aussie pared slight gains following the RBA decision as the central bank reaffirmed its dovish stance, keeping expectations to only move in 2024.

So far today, overall market moves are mild after the bout of dollar selling into month-end yesterday. However, given that the UK and US were out, there might be some caveats to price action despite some technical levels at risk.

EUR/USD holds above 1.2200 but keeps below the 25 February high of 1.2243 for now. But GBP/USD has managed a break above the 1.4200 level though daily resistance around the 24 February high at 1.4241 may still limit gains for now.

US futures are little changed as the risk mood remains more tepid to start the new week.

Looking ahead, there will be some releases in Europe to move things along but barring any risk-related moves, the focus should be on whether yesterday’s dollar adjustment was a one-off that may reverse or if the return of UK and US traders will carry that to June.

0600 GMT – UK May Nationwide house prices

Prior release can be found here. House prices in the UK should continue to keep more robust amid the stamp duty holiday and reopening of the economy, so that should be reflected in the latest readings by Nationwide today.

0700 GMT – Switzerland Q1 GDP figures

Prior release can be found here. Swiss GDP is estimated to have contracted slightly to start the new year amid more subdued activity in the region, though it had been better than anticipated to be fair. The focus now is more on the outlook, so this feels lagging.

0715 GMT – Spain May manufacturing PMI

0730 GMT – Switzerland May manufacturing PMI

0745 GMT – Italy May manufacturing PMI

0750 GMT – France May final manufacturing PMI

0755 GMT – Germany May final manufacturing PMI

0800 GMT – Eurozone May final manufacturing PMI

The focus is on the final readings from France, Germany, and overall Eurozone but there shouldn’t be much that differs from the initial reports.

0755 GMT – Germany May unemployment change, rate

Prior release can be found here. Once again, labour market conditions remain rather distorted and obscured by the short-time work scheme so it is tough to get an actual read of the underlying situation.

0830 GMT – UK May final manufacturing PMI

The preliminary report can be found here. The final readings shouldn’t tell us much of anything new and reaffirm sentiment from the initial report.

0900 GMT – Eurozone April unemployment rate

Prior release can be found here. Furlough programs in the region make this a tough reading to focus on and it will stay that way for the months to come.

0900 GMT – Eurozone May preliminary CPI figures

Prior release can be found here. Inflation is expected to tick higher in the euro area and while that may owe to some base effects, there is likely also some pressure from higher input cost inflation among the mix. The core reading is also estimated to creep higher but nothing that will get the ECB jumping off their seats yet.

Also, don’t forget that OPEC+ meets later today as well to decide on their next moves. I don’t see a major change to the status quo for the time being but look out for clues on what they may decide to do in the months ahead.

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

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