ANZ NZ have produced a thoughtful piece on the turmoil in global shipping.
The note is mainly focused on the impact on New Zealand exporters (the primary producers) but it makes more widely applicable points and thus of impact around the planet.
- Global trade is forecast to lift by 8% in 2021 and a further 6% in 2022, suggesting there will be no let-up in demand for shipping any time soon.
ANZ’s outlook (in summary):
- For shipping demand to normalise, some of the global consumer demand for goods needs to wane, either because the great substitution from holidays to things partially reverses as travel opens up again, and/or because global (particularly US) consumers feel the need to be more prudent with their spending.