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China’s manufacturing, and services, PMIs are expected to have declined in June:

  • Manufacturing expected 50.8, prior 51.0 

  • Non-manufacturing expected 52.7, prior 55.2

China saw a resurgent wave of COVID-19 infections in the major industrial province of Guangdong. Morgan Stanley preview comments:

  • key drag would be COVID disruption on Shenzhen ports, accounting for about 7% of national exports
  • has led to slower container throughput growth
  • could weigh down national exports by 3-4%
  • and thus drag the pace of production in mid- to downstream sectors
  • construction activity likely slowed amid higher raw material prices

The official PMI mainly assesses large and state-owned firms.

Later this week (Thursday) we’ll get the private Caixin manufacturing PMI. This has a larger representation of smaller (that SOEs) firms:

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