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- Despite the USD’s good performance this year, solid US data and the Fed turning more hawkish recently, the strong consensus remains against the USD.
- Looking at the distribution of the consensus forecasts in Bloomberg in the Chart of the Day, we have been the most bearish on EURUSD and the only one with a forecast as low as 1.15, even today
- The market has also been wrong about the Fed this year and is now ignoring the ECB Strategy Review. Another weak summer tourist season is also a risk for the EUR. If US inflation continues surprising to the upside, the USD could even appreciate across the board
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