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Monday, June 21, 2021

Australian January – March economic growth data (Q1 GDP) is due 2 June 2021

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The release of ‘partial’ indicators for the Q1 GDP has seen estimates for the data revised higher.

The net of indicators for

  • net exports, 
  • inventories 
  • public spending 

that all flow into the GDP calculation was stronger than expected.

Central median expected is now +1.5% q/q (the previous was +3.1%)

  • y/y expected +0.6%, prior -1.1%

  • data release is due at 0130 GMT 

Westpac have noted:

  • The risks to the forecasts are, arguably tilted to the upside (potentially as high as a 1.9%) – we have a negative adjustment to allow for the apparent downside on Incomes.
  • Key uncertainties and risks are around: services spending by consumers – to what extent was this hit by the snap lock-downs and the floods; as well as how GDP(income) and GDP(production) will print. 

For the AUD, an upside surprise should see a pop, which may prove short-lived (a downside surprise vice versa). The thing to keep in mind with this data release is that this is growth from Jan-March, its now the beginning of June. Markets may wobble on the release but will soon return to being forward-looking. AUD/USD tried to break 0.7770, again, but has not as yet. I’ll be watching China commodity futures markets, especially iron ore, for clues if the topside can be pierced during the session.

And, don’;t forget, RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle speaks later, at 0900 GMT. Debelle’s comments are always a focus for financial markets.  

The release of 'partial' indicators for the Q1 GDP has seen estimates for the data revised higher.

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