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Monday, June 14, 2021

April jobs report underscores the long climb back to US

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Treasury Secretary Yellen speaking at the White House

  • we knew it would be a long road to recovery
  • April jobs report underscores the long climb back to US economic recovery
  • there has been a remarkable economic progress
  • bright economic spots in service industries expanding labor market
  • there has been remarkable economic progress
  • undeniable impact is a lack of available care for families so they can work
  • families need more support
  • 2 million women have not returned to the work force as result of childcare costs
  • Number of people working part-time declined by 600,000 and average hours increased.
  • There are people not ready or able to go back to the labor force especially parents
  • concerned about pandemic and consequences also remains a factor why people are not returning back to work
  • I don’t think additional employment point benefits is really a factor keeping workers out of the labor market
  • We have had a very unusual hit to the economy and we can expect the road back to be somewhat bumpy
  • There have been setbacks in the automotive and the lumber industry as a result of shortages as a result of the restart
  • Should never take one month’s data as the trend
  • Money from recovery plan will help boost spending over the coming months
  • I really doubt we will see an inflationary cycle
  • Base effects will impact inflation in the short term but that is transitory
  • Wage growth has not picked up meaningfully

Comments are positive on the economy as you would expect.  The administration is not buying the notion that workers are choosing not to go back to work but instead prefer to stay home and collect benefits.  

Yellen cites the cost of childcare as one key reason.  All of which highlights the need for schools to reopen as they provide built in child care for many.  With the school year coming to an end, the big boost in employment might not come until the fall when schools reopen.

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