The 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 2.76 percent on Monday morning, while the 5-year and 30-year rates stayed inverted.
|US3M||U.S. 3 Month Treasury||0.731||0.033||0|
|US1Y||U.S. 1 Year Treasury||1.807||0.039||0|
|US2Y||U.S. 2 Year Treasury||2.58||0.06||0|
|US5Y||U.S. 5 Year Treasury||2.814||0.057||0|
|US10Y||U.S. 10 Year Treasury||2.753||0.038||0|
|US30Y||U.S. 30 Year Treasury||2.758||0.012||0|
At 4 a.m. ET on Monday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield had risen four basis points to 2.7629 percent, up from 2.7741 percent on Sunday evening. The 30-year Treasury bond yield increased by one basis point to 2.7560 percent, while the 5-year rate increased by five basis points to 2.8154 percent. Yields move in the opposite direction of prices, with one basis point equaling 0.01 percent.
Concerns that increasing inflation and the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy forcefully could hinder economic development have recently pushed Treasury rates.
Due to these anxieties, which have traditionally occurred prior to recessions, investors have sold out of shorter-dated government bonds in favor of longer-dated debt. Investors have been keen to point out that inversion of the yield curve is not a guarantee of a recession and that this indicator can flash red up to two years before an economic slump occurs.
While the effects of rising expenses are beginning to be felt in the economy, Paul Jackson, global head of asset allocation research at Invesco, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday that a recession is not in the cards this year.
He expects the global economy to grow at roughly 3% this year, rather than the 4% he had predicted previously. Still, he indicates recessionary fears will “reappear from time to time this year and that we will be concerned about.”
On Sunday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Meester told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that she still believes the Fed can control inflation without incurring severe economic harm.
This week will see the release of two sets of inflation data: the March consumer price index on Tuesday and the producer pricing index from the previous month on Wednesday.
On Monday, no significant economic data is scheduled to be released.
At 9:30 a.m. ET on Monday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver the opening comments at a FedListens event in Nashville, Tennessee.
Investors will be watching developments in Ukraine as well. Russia’s invasion of the country has produced instability in the oil and other commodity markets, which has thrown stocks off. Auctions for $57 billion in 13-week bills, $48 billion in 26-week bills, and $46 billion in 3-year notes are scheduled on Monday.e